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The most significant aspect of the US President,
Barack Obama's upcoming summit with the Indian
Prime Minister, Narendra Modi, is that Mr Obama
will be the chief guest at India's Republic Day
celebrations.
This is the first time that a US head of state will be
given this honour by India and reflects, more than
anything else, the degree of comfort that Delhi has
in its relations with Washington.
India, traditionally, has invited its Republic Day
guests who will not attract controversy at home
and come from countries with whom it has close
strategic relations.
Thus the heads of neither Pakistan nor China have
been invited on the first count. While no Latin
American leaders have ever come for the second
reason.
It says something about how difficult Indo-US
relations have been that it has taken over seven
decades for Delhi to invite the US president to
participate in a ceremony marking its emergence
as a full-fledged constitutional democracy.
While there is much focus on what diplomats call
the "deliverables" - substantive agreements and
deals - that will emerge from the meeting, the
likelihood is that the symbolism will be much
greater than the substance on this visit.
Mr Obama and Mr Modi held a fruitful summit in
September last year and the present invitation was
extended seemingly on the spur of the moment by
Mr Modi when the two met on sidelines of the East
Asia Summit in Myanmar (Burma) last November.
This has meant, officials on both sides admit,
relatively little time to put together a substantial
agenda.
A better measure of the Republic Day summit's
agenda will be the areas the bilateral talks will
focus on - defence, energy and counter-terrorism.
These are all in the sensitive zone of most
governments and the depth of the discussion in
each of these underlines how close the two
countries have become.
Contending interests
In defence, the spearhead of the relationship is less
the business of selling and buying arms than
attempts by India and the US to jointly develop and
produce a new generation of weaponry.
This idea has been kicked around for several years
between the two countries, struggling to overcome
political and bureaucratic resistance within both
capitals.
The expectation is that at least one, if not more,
such deals will be signed later this month.
A few dozen possible technologies and weapon
systems have been offered by the US.
India is particularly interested in drones, carrier
technology and so on that enhance its ability to
project its air and naval power.
In energy, the two governments are looking at
contending interests - improving the supply of fossil
fuels and inhibiting climate change.
Mr Modi and Mr Obama are relatively unusual
among world leaders in their personal belief that
global warming is an issue of overriding
importance.
The US has thus been a strong supporter - though
with some commercial opportunities in mind - of
the Indian government's ambitious plans for
renewable energy, especially solar. The September
Indo-US summit was shot through with green
energy.
India's Republic Day celebration is a spectacular
event
Mr Obama would like Mr Modi to give binding
commitments on India's carbon emissions, even
ones as broad as the ones China agreed to recently.
But India has a troubled fossil fuel dependent power
generation sector. It is looking increasingly to the
US for inexpensive natural gas - and has been
pushing for a long-term commitment by Washington
to allow such imports.
The US, in return, will continue to push India to
change a flawed nuclear liability law that makes it
difficult for the US and other countries to sell
reactors to an energy-starved India.
Neither issue is likely to be resolved during this
summit, though there may be discussion to that
effect.
Intelligence sharing
Counter-terrorism is a particularly good measure of
the strength of relations for two reasons.
One, India continues to be wary of the degree of
intelligence cooperation between the US to India's
regional rival, Pakistan. The more Indian and US
intelligence agencies work together, the less
important the shadow of Pakistan becomes to
bilateral relations.
By all accounts, India and US already enjoy a very
high level of intelligence sharing on terrorism.
Narendra Modi visited the US in September
Notably, when European governments were
complaining about revelations of widespread
electronic surveillance by the US National Security
Agency, a terrorism-wary India reportedly asked
the NSA to step up its eavesdropping activities.
An area where the two sides are working more
closely together, however, is cybersecurity.
An ever more connected India is becoming more
conscious of its vulnerabilities in this area and
understands the need for international support.
However, the spectacle that will accompany the
Republic Day summit will obscure the weakness of
shared big strategic thinking between the two
countries.
The two leaders are extremely focused on
domestic concerns, seeing foreign policy as a
sideshow to the economic and social agenda they
have for their own countries.
The two are on opposite sides when it comes to the
US policies in Afghanistan and Pakistan.
But they are increasingly on the same page when it
comes to East Asia and China.
When Mr Obama takes the salute of marching
Indian soldiers, these will not be at the forefront of
the summit agenda.
The symbolism of the event will undermine the
other side of the geopolitical coin: differences
between India and the US pale in comparison to
what brings them together.

Chapisha Maoni

 
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